The Economic Ramifications of Widespread Remote Work Adoption Post-COVID-19: Impacts on Urban Real Estate, Local Economies, and Productivity Across North America and Europe

Completed on July 26, 2025 at 9:42 p.m.

Complete

"Analyze the economic impact of the widespread adoption of remote work following the COVID-19 pandemic. The review should focus on studies that quantify effects on urban commercial real estate markets, local service economies in metropolitan areas, and productivity measurements across different sectors. Contrast findings from North America and Europe."

The following papers were shortlisted based on their titles and snippets but were later discarded after a more detailed analysis of their abstracts determined they were not relevant enough.

  • Commercial Real Estate in the Digital Economy
    RB Krumhansl, A Zikakis | 2012
  • Accommodating the new economy: The SANE space environment model
    A Harrison
  • Telemigration and development: On the offshorability of teleworkable jobs
    R Baldwin, JI Dingel
  • The geography of telework in Latin America: new spatial devices during the pandemic
    YMP Pichihua, JR Sanchez
  • Sectors or countries? Typologies and levels of analysis in comparative industrial relations
    B Bechter, B Brandl, G Meardi

Literature Review Synthesis

The Economic Ramifications of Widespread Remote Work Adoption Post-COVID-19: Impacts on Urban Real Estate, Local Economies, and Productivity Across North America and Europe

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed an unprecedented global shift towards remote work, fundamentally altering traditional employment structures and urban dynamics. This literature review synthesizes research examining the economic consequences of this widespread adoption, focusing on its quantifiable effects on urban commercial real estate markets, local service economies within metropolitan areas, and productivity measurements across various sectors. A key objective is to contrast findings and trends observed in North America and Europe.

Synthesis of Findings

Economic Impact on Urban Commercial Real Estate Markets (North America vs. Europe)

The most pronounced and consistently quantified impact of remote work adoption has been on urban commercial real estate, particularly office spaces. In North America, studies indicate a substantial decline in the value and performance of office buildings. For instance, New York City commercial office buildings experienced a significant revaluation, with a 45% drop in 2020 values and a projected 39% longer-term decline, translating to billions in value destruction. This is attributed to reduced lease revenues, lower occupancy rates, decreased renewal rates, and shorter lease durations, all altering the risk premium associated with these assets (1). Research in Canada highlights that increased teleworking, especially among university-educated workers in ICT-intensive firms often located in urban cores, directly leads to reduced commuting and lower occupancy in downtown office towers, signaling a decreased demand for commercial real estate (4). Models suggest that increased working from home (WFH) can lead to flatter residential density gradients and urban sprawl, with job centralization in larger cities, potentially impacting smaller cities and towns (12). The broader impact on urban fortunes is contingent on major economic shifts like remote work, which could potentially lead to urban crises if businesses and affluent populations relocate from urban centers (8). Structural behavioral changes, including teleworking, are identified as key drivers of divergence in commercial real estate prices, alongside pandemic-specific factors and fiscal support (3).

In Europe, the adoption of remote work has also been observed, though studies suggest a lower overall uptake compared to the United States (5). Remote work is predominantly concentrated in cities and capital regions across Europe, with its uneven distribution largely explained by composition effects—cities historically hosting a higher proportion of workers in occupations and sectors amenable to remote work (5, 13). While industrial and retail real estate markets in Europe have shown varied responses, office markets have not yet exhibited significant structural impacts, with factors like rising interest rates and geopolitical instability also influencing market behavior (6). The development and incidence of telework in Europe vary across countries, influenced by distinct social and economic settings and EU policy frameworks (15, 16). Furthermore, the proliferation of new working spaces (NeWSps) like coworking spaces and coffee shops is transforming urban and regional development, with comparative studies from Europe and the US offering insights into these evolving dynamics (10).

Across both continents, remote work is largely concentrated in metropolitan areas, driven by agglomerative forces such as the distribution of skills, human capital, and institutions, often favoring ICT-centric cities (2). This concentration in large cities leaves rural areas behind (2). While the pandemic might induce short-term social changes in urban structures, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the global city system's economic geography at a macrogeographic level (9).

Economic Impact on Local Service Economies in Metropolitan Areas (North America vs. Europe)

The direct impact of remote work on local service economies in metropolitan areas is largely inferred from its effects on commercial real estate and commuting patterns. Reduced office occupancy and decreased commuting in urban centers directly translate to lower foot traffic for local services such as restaurants, retail, and hospitality. The significant decline in commercial real estate values (1) and the anticipated lower demand for office space (4) suggest a contraction in economic activity within business districts. Moreover, potential shifts in residential preferences, such as urban sprawl or relocation away from city centers (8, 12), could redistribute consumer spending and impact local economies in suburban or exurban areas. The implications for local public finances are also considerable, given the reduced value of commercial properties (1). While specific studies quantifying these effects on service economies are less prevalent, the link between reduced physical presence in commercial hubs and diminished local economic vitality is a clear consequence of widespread remote work adoption.

Economic Impact on Productivity Measurements Across Different Sectors (North America vs. Europe)

Research on the impact of remote work on productivity across sectors presents a more nuanced picture, with less direct comparative data between North America and Europe specifically on this metric. Remote work is predominantly adopted by high-skilled workers, particularly those in ICT-intensive firms (2, 4). This concentration suggests that sectors with a higher prevalence of such roles may experience different productivity outcomes compared to those with less remote-work-amenable jobs. One study analyzing pandemic shocks found a reduction in economy-wide labor productivity in Latin America and overall for OECD countries, suggesting that significant productivity gains in other sectors would be needed to offset these losses (14). While telecommuting models can predict welfare gains for telecommuters (7), the broader sectoral productivity impacts, whether positive or negative, are not extensively detailed across the reviewed literature. The focus tends to be on the prevalence and geographical distribution of remote work rather than its direct, quantified impact on output per worker across diverse industries and regions. Studies in Europe assess the effectiveness and long-term economic impact of remote work (16), but detailed sectoral productivity comparisons with North America are not a primary focus.

Conclusion

The widespread adoption of remote work following the COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably reshaped urban economic landscapes, most significantly impacting commercial real estate markets. North America has seen more pronounced declines in office property values, driven by higher rates of remote work adoption, particularly among skilled professionals in urban centers. Europe, while experiencing a lower but growing adoption concentrated in cities, shows less immediate structural impact on its office markets, though regional variations and policy contexts play a crucial role. The effects on local service economies are largely inferred, pointing towards potential contractions in urban business districts and shifts in consumer spending patterns. Regarding productivity, the literature suggests a concentration of remote work among high-skilled sectors, but comprehensive, comparative data on sectoral productivity impacts across North America and Europe remains an area requiring further investigation. Future research could benefit from more granular, cross-regional studies that directly quantify the productivity gains or losses associated with remote work across a wider array of sectors and worker demographics, as well as deeper analysis into the specific mechanisms affecting local service economies.

Detailed Paper List

1. Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

Relevance Score: 6.9 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: N/A

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w30526

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This study investigates the significant impact of remote work adoption, spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, on the commercial office sector. It quantifies substantial shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, leading to large effects on current and future cash flows for office buildings and altering their risk premium. The research revalues New York City commercial office buildings, finding a 45% decline in 2020 values and a 39% longer-run decline, representing $453 billion in value destruction, with higher quality buildings showing more resilience. These changes have implications for local public finances and financial sector stability.

2. The global polarisation of remote work

Relevance Score: 5.7 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Fabian Braesemann, Fabian Stephany, Ole Teutloff, otto kässi, Mark Graham, Vili Lehdonvirta

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: PLoS ONE

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274630

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This study analyzes the global polarization of remote work, using data from an online labor platform to understand its geographical distribution. It finds that remote work is concentrated in North America, Europe, and South Asia, with many Global South countries participating minimally. Furthermore, remote jobs are predominantly located in large cities, leaving rural areas behind, and are polarized by skill level, with high-skilled workers securing better-paying jobs. The findings suggest that agglomerative forces, such as the distribution of skills, human capital, and institutions, drive remote work towards metropolitan areas, particularly those focused on ICT, while locations lacking these attributes, often rural areas, are disadvantaged.

3. Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?

Relevance Score: 5.6 Open Access

Authors: Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, Fabio M. Natalucci, Andrea Deghi

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: Global Financial Stability Notes

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400216848.065

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: N/A

Summary: This note analyzes the divergence in commercial real estate (CRE) prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, using city-level data from major economies. It finds that pandemic-specific factors like containment measures and virus spread negatively impacted prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions cushioned the shock. Higher vaccination rates aided recovery, particularly in retail. Crucially, structural behavioral changes like teleworking and e-commerce are identified as having an impact on CRE prices in certain segments, contributing to regional and sectoral price divergence.

4. The prevalence of telework under Covid-19 in Canada

Relevance Score: 5.5

Authors: Murtaza Haider, Amar Anwar

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: Information Technology and People

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/itp-08-2021-0585

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: N/A

Summary: This study investigates the prevalence and determinants of teleworking in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, finding a significant increase from 12% pre-pandemic to a peak of 40% in early 2020, particularly among university-educated workers in ICT-intensive firms. The research highlights that these workers are often located in urban cores, leading to reduced commuting and lower occupancy in downtown office towers, suggesting a substantial decrease in demand for commercial real estate. The findings imply that landlords must prepare for lower demand as leases expire, and governments might consider promoting teleworking to manage travel demand and infrastructure costs.

5. The new geography of remote jobs in Europe

Relevance Score: 5.3 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Davide Luca, Cem Özgüzel, Zhiwu Wei

Publication Year: 2024

Source/Journal: Regional Studies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2024.2352526

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This paper maps the spread of working from home across 30 European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting its lower uptake compared to the United States and its uneven distribution, primarily concentrated in cities and capital regions. Using a variance decomposition procedure, the study finds that the uneven distribution of remote jobs is largely due to composition effects, as cities historically hosted more workers in occupations and sectors amenable to remote work compared to intermediate-density and rural areas.

6. Commercial real estate prices in Europe after COVID-19

Relevance Score: 5.3 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Martin Hoesli, Richard Malle

Publication Year: 2023

Source/Journal: Journal of European real estate research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-09-2023-0031

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This article analyzes the behavior of commercial real estate prices across Europe in the post-COVID-19 era, examining ten countries and various property types using national and city-level data. Findings indicate that while industrial properties initially benefited, they declined in 2022, residential properties continued to rise, and retail real estate maintained its downward trend; office markets have not yet shown significant structural impact. The study also considers the influence of rising interest rates and geopolitical instability, assessing whether observed effects are temporary or long-lasting.

7. Spatial Implications of Telecommuting

Relevance Score: 5.3 PDF Available

Authors: Matt Delventhal, А. И. Пархоменко

Publication Year: 2020

Source/Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3746555

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This study develops a quantitative spatial model to analyze the effects of telecommuting, where worker ability and propensity to work from home vary by education and industry. Applied to 4,502 U.S. locations, the model predicts that increased telework attractiveness leads to complex reallocations within and across cities, resulting in welfare gains for telecommuters and losses for non-telecommuters, while also reducing inequality across residential locations. The framework is validated by its ability to predict observed changes in residents and housing prices between 2019 and 2021.

8. Urban resilience

Relevance Score: 5.2 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Edward L. Glaeser

Publication Year: 2021

Source/Journal: Urban Studies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980211052230

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This essay explores whether the COVID-19 pandemic will reverse the urban renaissance, drawing on literature about natural disaster impacts. It posits that while cities have historically shown resilience to physical destruction and plagues, economic and political shocks can be more damaging. The abstract suggests that COVID-19's significant impact on urban fortunes is contingent on accompanying major economic shifts, such as the widespread adoption of remote work, or political changes that cause businesses and affluent populations to relocate from urban centers, potentially leading to a recurrence of 1970s-era urban crises.

9. Critical Commentary: Cities in a post-COVID world

Relevance Score: 5.1 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Richard Florida, Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, Michael Storper

Publication Year: 2021

Source/Journal: Urban Studies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980211018072

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This paper offers a critical commentary on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cities and metropolitan regions, analyzing its economic, fiscal, social, and political fallout. It assesses the pandemic's impact on urban economic geography at various scales, considering factors like social scarring, lockdowns, urban resilience, and changes in urban form. The authors argue that while the pandemic is unlikely to fundamentally alter the global city system's economic geography and spatial inequality at a macrogeographic level, it may induce short-term and some longer-term social changes in the structure of cities, suburbs, and metropolitan regions at a microgeographic level.

10. The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of Working Spaces

Relevance Score: 4.8 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Ilaria Mariotti, Mina Di Marino, Pavel Bednář

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: Routledge eBooks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003181163

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This edited volume explores the proliferation of new working spaces (NeWSps) like coworking spaces and coffee shops, examining their transformation and role in urban and regional development during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. It adopts an interdisciplinary approach, situating the debate within the pandemic's context, repositioning NeWSps within socioeconomic and planning frameworks, and offering new directions for urban resilience. The book includes comparative studies from Europe and the US, contributing to the understanding of the multidisciplinary implications of NeWSps for society, economy, and planning.

11. The Breath of the Metropolis: Smart Working and New Urban Geographies

Relevance Score: 4.4 Open Access

Authors: Fulvio Adobati, Andrea Debernardi

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: Sustainability

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14021028

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: N/A

Summary: This paper examines the potential territorial impacts of telework in Italy, focusing on transport networks and living geographies within the Italian national context. It identifies metropolitan areas with high concentrations of telework-prone economic sectors and explores how telework might influence housing preferences, particularly concerning tourist housing near metropolitan areas. The study aims to contribute to developing a framework for the Italian context to enhance telework's potential for environmental, social, and territorial sustainability, outlining possible scenarios for major metropolitan areas.

12. More working from home will change the shape and size of cities

Relevance Score: 4.2 PDF Available

Authors: James Lennox

Publication Year: 2020

Source/Journal: RePEc: Research Papers in Economics

DOI: N/A

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This study employs a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model to investigate how increased working from home (WFH) affects urban economies. It simulates shifts in labour supply towards WFH-intensive occupations, particularly benefiting business services, and alters residential choices, leading to longer but less frequent commutes and a preference for cheaper housing. The model predicts flatter residential density gradients, increased urban sprawl, and job centralization in larger cities, while smaller cities and towns may shrink unless they attract commuters from major centers.

13. The new geography of remote jobs? Evidence from Europe

Relevance Score: 3.8 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Davide Luca, Zhiwu Wei

Publication Year: 2023

Source/Journal: OECD regional development papers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/29f94cd0-en

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This paper investigates the uneven spread of remote work across 30 European countries following the COVID-19 pandemic, using individual micro-data and regional characteristics. It establishes a systematic measurement for remote work and finds that cities and capital regions adopted it more rapidly than other areas. The primary driver identified for this uneven diffusion is the composition of the workforce, with cities hosting a higher proportion of workers in occupations and sectors more amenable to remote work.

14. Sectoral Productivity Growth, COVID-19 Shocks, and Infrastructure

Relevance Score: 3.8 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Hildegart Ahumada, Eduardo A. Cavallo, Santos Espina-Mairal, Fernando Navajas

Publication Year: 2022

Source/Journal: Economics of Disasters and Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00098-z

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This paper analyzes sectoral productivity shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic using the KLEMS dataset for OECD and Latin America/Caribbean countries. It employs panel vector autoregression to estimate the nature and size of these shocks, finding that the pandemic reduced economy-wide labor productivity by 4.9% in Latin America and 3.5% overall. The study suggests that significant productivity gains in infrastructure sectors, at least three times historical rates, would be necessary to offset these pandemic-induced productivity losses.

15. Telework and its effects in Europe

Relevance Score: 3.8 Open Access PDF Available

Authors: Lutz Gschwind, Óscar Vargas

Publication Year: 2019

Source/Journal: Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789903751.00007

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: Direct PDF Link

Summary: This chapter examines the unique characteristics of telework development, incidence, and effects within Europe, noting economic shifts towards service and knowledge-based jobs, increased demand for flexible work policies, and the influence of dual-earner households. It highlights the significance of the EU's 2002 framework agreement on telework and how telework can evolve differently across European countries based on their social and economic settings, using 2015 data from the European Working Conditions Survey and national expert reports from ten countries.

16. The Development of Remote Work in the European Union and Latvia

Relevance Score: 3.5

Authors: Sandra Jēkabsone, Purmalis Karlis, Irina Skribāne

Publication Year: 2024

Source/Journal: Contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/s1569-37592024000112a019

Link: Google Scholar Link

PDF Link: N/A

Summary: This study assesses the development of remote work within the European Union and Latvia, aiming to understand its effectiveness and long-term economic impact. It identifies potential benefits and challenges of remote work deployment in Latvia and proposes policy recommendations. The research utilizes theoretical analysis, deduction, and comparative methods to examine remote work's influence on economic transformation, noting its implications for urban spaces and congestion.